Ethereum līdzdibinātājs Vitāliks Buterins kritizējis teoriju par halvinga ietekmi uz bitkoina tirgus vērtības pieaugumu, pamatojoties uz Stock-to-Flow statistisko modeli (S2F)

Ethereum līdzdibinātājs Vitāliks Buterins kritizējis teoriju par halvinga ietekmi uz bitkoina tirgus vērtības pieaugumu, pamatojoties uz Stock-to-Flow statistisko modeli (S2F).

The "halvings cause BTC price rises" theory is unfalsifiable:

Was the peak before the halving? Then it "rose in anticipation of the halving"
During? "Because of the halving"
After? "Because of…"

The last $20k peak was near the halfway point between the 2016 and 2020 halvings. pic.twitter.com/dhVxhmECQS

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) June 14, 2020

Is this about S2F? It doesn't seem to imply a peak is due to the halving event, rather that each period between halvings sees different orders of magnitude due to different supply. Falsifiable if that no longer happens on a new period.

— Ricardo Lopes (@ricardoplopes) June 14, 2020

I disagree with S2F, but I agree that price spikes not having a coherent correlation with halvings is not sufficient to disprove S2F.

— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) June 14, 2020

Not sufficient to disprove because it's not what the model projects.

IMO even the best models (for any definition of best) can't predict global policy, covid and so on, so there's a limit to what they can reasonably project. Short term moves definitely not possible.

— Ricardo Lopes (@ricardoplopes) June 14, 2020